The Republican Primary Election
Only 31 Competitive Races in Bexar County
We now have the candidates who have filed for office within Bexar County.
We previously looked at the number of precinct chairs who filed and found that only 192 precinct chairs had filed and several of these are competitive. The net result following the March 2024 primary election will have BexarGOP executive committee starting with 181 precinct chairs headed into the 2024 presidential election. This represents a 36% decline from the start of the 2022-2024 biennium.
Chart 1 below shows the number of competitive races for each Presidential Election, 1992 - 2024. In 2024, there will only be 31 contested races, the lowest number over the period. The reader can see the number of competitive races, that is, where a republican opposed a democrat, in Bexar County has decline precipitously since 2012. The red line shows the number of republican candidates who won their contest each presidential election year in Bexar County. That number has declined steadily since 2000 and in 2024 we expect only four (4) candidates to win in competitive races.
There was a total of 51 offices open across Bexar County to be filled by the Republican Party in the primary and later general election. Of these 51 elective seats, Republicans recruited candidates for only 31 (60.8%) of the seats.
BexarGOP was responsible for recruiting in 34 of these seats (66.7%). Of the 34, BexarGOP recruited candidates for only 16 (47.1%) offices. Of particular interest is the fact there were 13 District Court judgeships open and BexarGOP recruited not one. This means these 13 District Court seats have been ceded to the democrats.
This atrocious performance means there will only be 31 contested races for the November Presidential Election in Bexar County.
The 31 competitive races will be the lowest on record. Readers must understand the fallout from these numbers because they will directly affect the turnout in the March primary election and the November Presidential election. Candidates and issues drive the turnout. With President Trump riding high in the polls, almost guaranteed the race in Texas, it will be up to Senator Cruz to drive the March primary election.
Based on these low numbers, we are revising our forecast for the primary election. We now believe the turnout for the March Republican Primary in Bexar County could be as low as 83,099 which means that in November 2024 the general election turnout for Republican voters will lag SIGNIFICANTLY from what is necessary to win county wide.
It is clear from these numbers BexarGOP has been asleep at the wheel.