The BexarGOP County Chair Race
The County Chair Race: An Overview
Three people have applied to run for the Office of BexarGOP County Chair. This marks the fifth consecutive Republican Primary Election where the Office has been contested. Since 1994, 9 of the 16 primary elections have been contested.
What makes this Republican Primary contest unique is the position is both open and contested. On three previous occasions, 1994, 2006, and 2014, the seat was open, but the position was not contested. Twice in the past 32 years has the position been both open and contested (2010 & 2018), that is, there is or was no incumbent running for re-election.
The 2024 Republican Primary will be the third election where the seat is open and contested. The three candidates vying for your votes are:
Jacinto “Cinto” Martinez: This marks the third consecutive attempt by Mr. Martinez. Previous attempts show him garnering a high of 21.1% of the vote in the 2022 primary election but failing to make the run-off. Mr. Martinez has been a spoiler in all these elections.
Kris Coons: Ms. Coons has served previously as the SREC Committeewoman for SD-25 (2020-2022). She was defeated at the 2022 Republican State Convention in her attempt at re-election. Ms. Coons is clearly depending on her ties to establishmentarians, local Republican Women’s Clubs, and TFRW to shore up her candidacy.
Robert Flores: Robert Flores ran for City Council District 10 in 2023. Mr. Flores finished 3rd in a field of 7. He currently works in the non-profit world and worked thirty years as a lobbyist. He has been recommended by many conservative activists and is the America First candidate running in this election.
TBC urges readers to do their own research on all three candidates between now and the election.
Criteria
TBC asks voters to consider the following criteria for discerning who to support for BexarGOP County Chair. The person heading up the party must possess certain gifts, abilities, talents, and skills to properly manage and administer BexarGOP. Consider the following:
Criterion 1: First and foremost, a chair is a facilitator of the executive committee, not a dictator of the assembly. They should be able to run a meeting, a meeting of hundreds of people. The executive committee is an assembly, it is therefore a legislative body that manages the overall direction of the local party.
Criterion 2: A chair should know and understand the bylaws and rules governing the conduct of business. The bylaws and rules are set every biennium at the organizational meeting and are not a secret. They define the structure for the assembly and how to conduct business. It is BexarGOP’s covenant - our constitution - with each other. Closely tied to understanding the bylaws and rules is an understanding of Robert's Rules of Order newly revised, the language for conducting business. That's why it is imperative the chair be grounded in parliamentary procedure and the body have a certified parliamentarian present for all meetings.
Criterion 3: A chair should possess the managerial skills (temperament) necessary to run a political party or a political organization. A political party needs all players at practice and on the field working in unison as a team. Each player brings unique gifts, talents, abilities, and skills that must be identified and utilized. Members of the Executive Committee cannot be relegated to the bench or excluded from the field based on the arbitrary feelings of the chair. The temperament of the chair is key to overall party success.
Criterion 4: A chair must understand Teamwork is the overriding objective of the county chair, anything short of that will spell continued electoral disaster in Bexar County (See Chart 1 below). BexarGOP should be pointed toward a well-defined campaign process building the necessary discipline to win elections. Winning teams, winning campaigns understand the pain of discipline; BexarGOP does not, it is too caught up in the pain of disappointment. The overall managerial emphasis must be geared toward campaign operations or management, a local political party cannot be a bureaucratic swamp, it must be a political operation.
Chart 1. Republican Victory Rate (RVR) in Bexar County, Presidential Elections, 1992 – 2020 with 2024 Forecast.
Criterion 5: A chair must understand the nature of debate and understand that disagreements are not an affront. Iron sharpens iron and debate, and disagreement leads to better solutions than arbitrarily shutting down debate, attempting to shut down individuals, accusing others of operational failures, and devising plans to undermine “enemies” within BexarGOP. The reality is Individuals within an assembly disagree and the last thing it needs are butter cups with hurt feelings spewing personal attacks at other members resulting in disappointment and factionalism. Attacking members of the assembly is not a solution, but a means of destroying.
Criterion 6: A chair must always be prepared. This is not just a boy scout motto; it is vital to BexarGOP administration. A chair must make decisions along with the other members of the organization. It is essential the chair includes the executive committee and the management committee in the decision-making process. They are not the enemy; they are your allies. This means offering plans and recommendations (solutions) to these allies to solve the problems facing BexarGOP.
Criterion 7: A chair must be the central fundraiser for BexarGOP. This is the primary objective of a county chair to raise money not only for party operation, keeping the doors open, but raising the necessary funds to conduct extensive campaign operations in support of building the local party and assisting candidates and campaigns.
The county chair must be innovative in raising money and innovation is driven by detailed planning on how the party will utilize the funds to counter our opponents. Fundraising must be driven by diversified ways of raising money. BexarGOP cannot become dependent on one source of capital. Why doesn’t BexarGOP have funds to underwrite block walking campaigns, phone banks, texting campaigns, direct mail campaigns (well defined, well targeted), and other campaign operations?
A final consideration is not so much a criterion as it is a call to action. The most truthful candidate will openly admit BexarGOP is a dumpster fire and needs serious attention. BexarGOP has been the plaything of incompetence, ineptitude, and division over the past four administrations. Each has been marked, indeed, dominated by division compounded by poor management. Factionalism (division) has defined the past four administrations in one way or another. The successful candidate will offer a solution to this nonsense and resolve to stop it.
Messaging
The ideal candidate will be an America First Candidate. This candidate will understand Donald J. Trump is the Republican Presidential candidate and will be carrying our banner into the upcoming election. It is why BexarGOP cannot equivocate in its support for Donald J. Trump and the America First Agenda. BexarGOP must become MAGA Central in this region in mobilizing and supporting volunteers and voters with the basic information and resources to be successful.
A Managerial Platform
The successful candidate will enunciate a clear strategy to redirect the managerial structure of BexarGOP away from a bureaucratic “keeping the doors open” mentality to a dynamic campaign management mentality.
With respect to this redirection, the candidate should promise to make BexarGOP open, transparent, and welcoming to all executive committee members. Every executive committee member and volunteer has value and should be given a task and a mission pointed toward campaign operations and building success.
The successful candidate will articulate their skill set as it applies to running meetings, understanding of rules, and parliamentary procedure. They should pledge to adhere to the rules and appoint a certified, republican parliamentarian.
The successful candidate should explain their plan for standing committees ranging from the people they would appoint to how they will be managed. It is essential these committees be given autonomy to operate and to innovate. These committees are the heart and soul of driving party operations, and they should be empowered to act through the executive committee and within the framework of campaign management.
The effective County Chair candidate will take seriously the fact that he or she has been elected to represent the entire county and must commit to fielding a full slate of vetted GOP candidates throughout the county. This is non-negotiable.
The most competent candidate will understand and articulate the importance and central role played by technology and database management both within the party structure and input from outside vendors. It should be a central operating principle to build and enhance BexarGOP data.
The county chair candidate must commit to reaching out to organizations that fulfill certain tasks not met by BexarGOP. There are many organizations that conduct training, analytics, policy development, campaign management, direct voter contact, and targeting. These organizations should be brought into the party, not to be absorbed, but to help organize and train people to go out into the communities and work, i.e., block walking, etc.
The best candidate will have an outreach strategy that will take BexarGOP into diversified communities and audiences to communicate the America First message of hope and prosperity. Such a strategy should be built on the foundational idea of increasing the visibility of liberty-based systems.
The successful candidate will address ethics issues as they relate to conflicts of interest, endorsements, and lobbying.
The successful candidate should call for a redirection in and reformatting of BexarGOP Newsletter to be more informative, on point, and timely. It should be published monthly with opinion pieces and articles informing the BexarGOP audience.
The successful candidate will retool BexarGOP website to make it easier to navigate and utilize.
A successful county chair candidate will build regional alliances with sister county GOP parties to assist in building the GOP brand and turnout the vote. BexarGOP must help mobilize and support volunteers and voters with the basic information and resources to be successful in electing conservative Republicans region wide.
Issues Platform
The successful candidate will pledge to:
1. Protect, defend, and uphold the Republican Party of Texas Platform.
2. Work to secure the border and stop the invasion of this nation.
3. Secure and work for the fidelity of our Elections.
4. Support the Ban on Gender Modification of Children.
5. Stop Sexualizing Texas Kids.
6. Ban Democrat Chairs in the legislature.
7. Abolish Abortion in Texas.
8. Defend Our Gun Rights; and
9. Protect parental Rights and Educational Freedom.
These were and are the legislative priorities of the Republican Party of Texas. They should be the same for BexarGOP. These are our principles, and they are the issues we should fight for. BexarGOP should be supportive of America First policies articulated by our candidate for President – Donald J. Trump.
Election Trends –
The Republican County Chair Race
The last three races for the office of Republican County Chair in Bexar County (2018, 2020, 2022) have resulted in run-offs. Our analysis shows that anytime there have been three or more candidates vying for the office, there has been a run-off. Chart 2 below shows the trends as they relate to Republican Primary Voters (RPVs)[1] in comparison to RPVs voting in the race for county chair each presidential primary. On average, there is a 26.6% drop off from the total Republican ballots cast for the top-of-the-ticket candidate (Presidential) to the office of BexarGOP chair.
For example, TBC’s current forecast is for a total of 91,930 republican primary ballots to be cast in the 2024 primary and of these, we forecast 78,207 will vote for BexarGOP Chair. A majority vote would be 39,181 votes; however, we do not expect that given the probabilities.
Chart 3 shows the number of drop off votes between the total republican primary ballots cast in the presidential primaries (top-of-the-ticket) and votes cast in the race for county chair. The greatest drop offs occurred in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 primaries when Republicans were looking for a standard bearer.
The current run of run-offs began in 2018 and we are forecasting a fourth in the 2024 Republican Primary Election. The 2024 Republican Primary Run-off Election will be held on 28 May 2024.
The great problem with run-offs is a further drop-off in the people voting for the office of Republican County Chair. Chart 2 shows the votes for county chair for 2020 and the forecast for 2024. The drop off from the March primary levels (ballots cast for county chair) and the run-off election for county chair is dramatic - 37.7%.
For example, in 2020, 72,154 individuals cast a ballot in the March Primary Election for Republican County Chair; but in the May Primary Run-off Election, only 42,095 individuals cast ballots, a 41.7% drop off. In the 2024 Republican Primary Run-off Election, TBC is currently forecasting 48,704 ballots to be cast. A majority will be 24,401 votes.
The candidate garnering the most votes in the March Primary Election for County chair does not necessarily win in the end – in the run-off. The probability is only 27.8% that the largest vote getter in March will prevail in the run-off.
Another factoid to consider is that when there is no incumbent and the Office of Republican County Chair is open and contested, the drop off on average is slightly higher (28.2%) when compared to the historical average of 26.6%.
Chart 2. The Republican Primary Vote and Votes for Republican County Chair, Presidential Primaries, 1996-2020 with 2024 Forecast.
Chart 3. The Number of Drop off Votes in BexarGOP Republican County Chair Race, Presidential Primaries, 1996-2020 with 2024 Forecast.
[1] Total Ballots Cast in the Republican Primary, Presidential Elections, 1996 thru 2020. Analysis: Bexar Conservatives, 2023. Data Source: Bexar County Elections Department, Historical election Results, 1994 through 2022.