Republican Victory Rate

Bexar County Divergence

Chart 6 demonstrates the results of this declining strength.

The Republican Victory Rate (RVR) measures the winning percentage of Republican candidates in contest against Democrats.  Consider, during the presidential election years between 1992 and 2004, Republican candidates, at all levels, won about 42.0% of the contest against Democrat competitors.

However, starting in 2008, the Republican Victory Rate (RVR) dropped dramatically from the 42.0% winning percentage to winning on average only 19.4% of contested races.

Starting in 2016, the winning percentage of Republican candidates plummeted below 20% and has remained fixed in the teens ever since.  Over this period, the RVR has averaged 14.3%.

BEA is forecasting this number to remain low in 2024 with a RVR of 18.3%.

Each of these charts make it abundantly clear, Béxar County Republicans have an enormous job ahead of them.  It is why we published this early forecast to spur engagement and teamwork.

The great question is what is holding them back?  What are the constraints producing this horrible performance in comparison to the rest of Texas and the surrounding counties?

Texas is widely recognized as a guiding light (conservative) in the nation while Béxar County is recognized as the opposite. Constraint theory holds individuals and institutions are only as successful as the issues limiting them.  Why isn’t Béxar County more convergent with Texas?