Atascosa County, Texas

Election Trends

TOTAL PARTISAN BALLOTS CAST

Chart 2-1 shows total partisan ballots cast in Atascosa County, Texas. The steep crimson line represents a growth of 666.43 in Total Republican Ballots Cast (TRBC_i) per election, compared to Total Socialists Ballots Cast ( TSBC_i (142.1)). Republican turnout grows 4.7 times faster than socialist turnout, driving partisan polarization, especially after 2010. This trend reflects structural changes resulting from demographics, national politics, cultural issues, and improved voter mobilization. The growth is systematic, and AtascosaGOP continues to outperform its opposition and TexasGOP. Chart 2-2 shows increasing polarization tied to the rural realignment, indicating a growing Republican advantage. AtascosaGOP should maintain and strengthen its efforts in turnout, fortifying party infrastructure, expanding voter registration efforts, and refining it persuasion campaign to boost margins.

REPUBLICAN VOTING STRENGTH

Chart 2-3 compares AtascosaGOP-PPI_i with TexasGOP-PPI_i, revealing a clear divergence in Republican voting strength between Atascosa County and Texas overall. The Partisan Parity Index (PPI_i) is a relative strength, oscillating index measuring TRBC_i (numerator) to TSBC_i (denominator). TexasGOP-PPI_i shows slow erosion overtime while AtascosaGOP-0PPI_i has continued to build strength. TexasGOP-PPI_i performance is well above parity but its performance is lagging because of UrbanGOP’s erosion.

The county's Republican influence and power have grown, especially since 2010, as shown in Chart 2-4, AtascosaGOP-PPI_i consistently outperforming the statewide average.

REPUBLICAN GUBERNATOIRAL VOTE

Chart 2-5 compares Republican Gubernatorial votes for AtascosaGOP-RGVi (crimson) to TexasGOP-RGVi (navy). The spike in 2006 was an anomaly due to several strong candidates, including two popular Republicans—one running as an independent. The period between 2002 through 2010 were strong Republican years but because of incumbency (a little bit of partisan complacency) and the 2006 free-for-all, these data reflect distorted trends. Apart from this period, AtascosaGOP consistently outperformed TexasGOP, and overall, the data highlights a divergence where AtascosaGOP increasingly outperformed statewide GOP trends.

AtascosaGOP consistently outperforms TexasGOP by large margins and aligns with the Rural Suburban Coalition. Its upward trend, currently ≈ 15 points above TexasGOP, can be attributed to demographic shifts, cultural factors, national politics, and South Texas rural counties' growing alignment with TexasGOP.

MARGIN OF VICTORY

Chart 2-7 shows the Margin of Victory for AtascosaGOP and TexasGOP. Like the preceding indicators, we see AtascosaGOP outperform TexasGOP over the period except for 2002, 2006, and 2010. The great period of divergence starts in 2014. The Margin of Victory is exactly what it says, it is the margin of victory, measured as a percentage, that the Republican Gubernatorial candidate beat the Socialist gubernatorial candidate, e.g., MOV_i = RGV_i - SGV_i. In 2022, AtascosaGOP-MOV_i = +40%.

Chart 2-8 measures the divergence between AtascosaGOP-MOV_i and TexasGOP-MOV_{i .} This trend suggests a good fit and a widening divergence.

PARTISANSHIP

Chart 2-9 tracks the Partisan Voting Index for AtascosaGOP. AtascosaGOP-PVI_i is a measure of Republican partisanship in comparison to statewide benchmark. Modeled off Cook’s Partisan Voting Index, AtascosaGOP-PVI_i measures how partisan a given coalition or district (county) is in comparison to the same coalition at a higher level (district). In this instance, we are measuring Republican voting performance in Atascosa County, Texas vis-à-vis TexasGOP. The comparisons (math) are based on how each coalition in a defined region (or district) voted in the previous two presidential elections. AtascosaGOP-PVI_i is a 2 cycle moving averages.

AtascosaGOP-PVI_i consistently outperforms TexasGOP. Chart 2-9 should be interpreted as leaning heavily Republican, but for purpose of this analysis, it is used to track the growth of Republican partisanship in Atascosa County.

SUMMARY

This chapter analyzed the growing Republican influence in Atascosa County, Texas, highlighting how AtascosaGOP has consistently outperformed the statewide TexasGOP in various electoral metrics since 2010. Key charts illustrate notable trends in gubernatorial vote margins, divergence from statewide averages, and a strong, increasing partisan alignment with the Republican Party. The analysis attributes these trends to demographic changes, cultural factors, national politics, and the region’s alignment with the Rural Suburban Coalition, concluding that Atascosa County’s Republican performance has become significantly more robust than the broader Texas average.

THE END.